Large parts of the world’s coastlines are low-lying, highly developed, and densely populated; in the U.S., nearly 40% of the population resides in coastal counties, that includes more than 16 million people in Florida. Impacts of flooding in these regions can be devastating with wide ranging social, economic, and environmental consequences. Understanding these risks requires an interdisciplinary approach due to the complexity of coastal systems with strong linkages between human and natural components. From the ocean-side, changes in sea level are the main cause for more frequent flooding but they are not the same everywhere and vary over time. This is compounded by variations in storminess which can lead to extreme water levels as well as combined effects of high coastal water levels and freshwater flows at the land-sea interface. These changes along with the expected socio-economic development (e.g., population growth, urbanisation, coastal migration, land-use changes) will make it inevitable to implement widespread adaptation measures. To do this effectively, decision makers need to know the range of possible futures and when and where further action is needed. While there is generally a wide portfolio of adaptation options to chose from, they work differently for different “types” of flooding and while some work well in some regions and they do not work in others. In my presentation I will cover the different processes leading to changes in coastal flood hazard and how they vary in space and time. I will also discuss different adaptation strategies and their advantages and disadvantages from a Florida perspective and the challenges which coastal managers face when dealing with a deeply uncertain future.

Dr. Thomas Wahl is an Associate Professor in the Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering Department at UCF and a member the National Center for Integrated Coastal Research. He obtained a Diploma in 2007 and PhD in 2012 in Civil Engineering at the University of Siegen, Germany. Afterwards he became a postdoc at the College of Marine Science at the University of South Florida. Before joining UCF in 2017, he was a Marie Curie Fellow of the European Union at the University of Southampton, UK. His research connects coastal engineering and various science disciplines to better understand risks to coastal communities, built infrastructure, and fragile ecosystems. He studies changes in coastal sea levels, ocean waves, and freshwater flows, how they combine to cause coastal flooding and erosion, and how coastal communities can adapt to mitigate the impacts. His research has attracted more than $57M in external research funding, including a NSF CAREER award, and he published >120 articles in the peer-reviewed literature. In 2023, he was honored as a Rising Star by ASEMFL.